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Growing trends toward deglobalization and geopolitical multipolarity are leading to significant changes in corporate risk and valuations models and methodologies. Key risk premia in financial valuations are shifting from traditional factor-driven vertical and horizontal analysis of key corporate performance ratios to models relying on deeper, less tangible fundamentals. Geopolitical, geoeconomic, social and environmental uncertainty factors are requiring more holistic and less quantifiable approach to valuations. This is more consistent with the VUCA+ (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) framework for risk analysis and pricing, just as regulatory frameworks continue to amplify more data-specific risk models

In this course Constantin covers the following topics:

• The key framework for future business resilience and valuations modelling should embrace uncertainty, not risk, as the key driving factors of financial sustainability.
• Uncertainty is tightly coupled with growing complexity of our economic environments, and ambiguity of the tools we have for addressing these.
• Economic, political, environmental, geopolitical and other macro-level shocks are becoming more frequent, more disruptive and harder to anticipate, model and mitigate across traditional risk management frameworks.
• Social and Governance dimensions of business strategy and operations are gaining in importance as public trust; institutional capital of liberal democracies and global political and policy systems are being strained by the transition to multipolar world (across internal and external political environments).
• What models of corporate financial analysis are capable of absorbing these new factors? What models provide a flexible enough frameworks for integrating future, and currently nascent, but accelerating shocks (e.g. deployment and development of new technologies, such as AI, quantum computing, biotechnological augmentation, etc.)?